Chalked full of long-term role-players and some potential first round standouts, the shooting guard and small forward positions possess a nice blend of skill sets amongst NCAA and international players alike.
To gain a better understanding of the statistics used, visit the glossary by Noah Libby-Haines. Interested in making your own statistical comparisons? You can do so here.
-Situational Statistics: the 2011 Wing Crop
-Situational Statistics: the 2011 Big Men Crop
-Just By the Numbers: the 2011 Big Men Crop
-Situational Statistics: the 2011 Forward Crop
-Just by the Numbers: the 2011 Forward Crop
-Situational Statistics: the 2011 Guard Crop
-Just by the Numbers: the 2011 Guard Crop
Point Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||23.9|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||21.4|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||20|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||19.8|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||15.7|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||15.4|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||14.8|
This stat tells us plainly how often these wings put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best as we can without taking competition-level, individual team roles, and teammates into consideration. This is a good place to start with this group of players, we can see quite a bit of spread, even amongst first round prospects.
Alec Burks and Marshon Brooks are the class of this group as scorers. Both had some excellent moments from the midrange, but Brooks was the far more perimeter oriented of the two, with Burks often preferring to slash to the rim. They are followed by fellow big conference scorers Klay Thompson, Scotty Hopson, and Jordan Hamilton.
Amongst top prospects, Kawhi Leonard and Travis Leslie sit exactly at the median of this group in terms of scoring. Both players will need to continue developing their perimeter scoring arsenals to become more complete offensive players at the next level. Tyler Honeycutt sits closer to the bottom of our list, and he'll need to improve his consistency at the next level to maximize his talents.
The bottom of our list is mostly comprised of role-players, including Justin Holiday and DeAndre Liggins, who made far bigger marks on the defensive end than they made offensively.
Three Point Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||8|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||7.2|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||6.2|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||6.1|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||5.6|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||4.2|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||3.1|
This stat tells us a lot about the role these prospects played for their team, as well as the confidence they had in their perimeter shooting ability.
Few prospects in the country shot as many threes per-game as LaceDarius Dunn did last season, and he's the top player in this metric by a pretty wide margin, which may not be a positive in his case. He's followed by two potential lottery picks, and arguably the top shooter in this entire class. Klay Thompson and Jordan Hamilton are amongst the most prolific spot-up threats in this draft, while Jon Diebler can safely be considered the most efficient. Marshon Brooks rounds out the top-5, and was amongst the most aggressive perimeter shooters in big college basketball last season.
We find Tyler Honeycutt closer to the middle of our list, while our other first round wing prospects land in the bottom-5. Alec Burks, Kawhi Leonard, and Travis Leslie were far more apt to go to the rim than settle for outside jump shots. It is interesting to see the projected first round wings in this class polarized on opposite ends of these rankings.
Three Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||0.79|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||0.47|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||0.45|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||0.41|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||0.36|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||0.36|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||0.18|
This stat examines how heavily a player relied on the 3-ball to score points, which is a good indicator of the role these prospects played last season, but is an indirect gauge of how well each of them got to the rim as well. Players from whom a large proportion of their shots come from beyond the arc may have some deficiencies in terms of size, ball-handling ability, athleticism, aggressiveness, or shot-selection. Or they simply could be outstanding shooters.
Jon Diebler fits the latter description. He's the best pure shooter in this class, and teams picking in the later part of the second round will no doubt take notice if they lack a comparable threat. Considering the efficiency we'll describe in a moment, it isn't at all shocking to see nearly 80% of his field goal attempts coming from behind the three-point line. LaceDarius Dunn comprises the second tier in this statistic, and there were some concerns about his shot selection at the college level. Xavi Rabaseda went through a bit of a midseason slump, but he was the main spot-up threat on a well-rounded and surprisingly successful Fuenlabrada team.
Klay Thompson is one of the top shooters amongst all first round prospects, and has simply gorgeous shooting mechanics. He places fourth with Justin Holiday not too far behind. Holiday's small number of overall field goal attempts skews him upward here.
Based on what we saw in the 3 point attempts per-40 minute pace adjusted chart, finding Alec Burks, Kawhi Leonard, Travis Leslie, and Jeremy Richmond at the bottom of our list isn't surprising. Burks and Marshon Brooks fall considerably from the last chart because of their sheer usage, while the other three players near the bottom of our list simply didn't rely on that aspect of their game. Richmond's mark here is indicative of how much room he has to develop as a long-term wing at the next level.
Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||7.4|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||6|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||5.7|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||5.1|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||5|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||4.6|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||2.5|
Free throws attempted per-40 minutes is a good statistic to measure the aggressiveness of a player getting to the rim, as well as his athleticism and ball-handling skills. In some ways, it provides an inverse look at the three-point stats we just looked at.
Alec Burks is easily the highest player in this category, showing why he didn't take all that many three pointers; he was able to get into the lane and draw contact just as effectively. Burks is followed by Bojan Bogdanovic who played a NBA style role for Cibona, seeing extensive touches in one-on-one situations and on the pick and roll.
Marshon Brooks and Scotty Hopson both make an appearance in the top-5, showing that in addition to their perimeter scoring ability, they are amongst the more proficient wings in this class when putting the ball on the floor and drawing contact around the rim. Despite being labeled as a shooter, Klay Thompson sits in sixth in these rankings.
Travis Leslie and Kawhi Leonard sit right in the middle of the pack amongst top prospects, while Jordan Hamilton sits a bit clear to the bottom of the pack.
Justin Holiday and Jereme Richmond are amongst the least effective wings in this class at getting to the line, ranking below Jon Diebler, who as we saw earlier, is spending a lot of his time roaming the perimeter. Richmond and Holiday are not ideally skilled one-on-one players at this juncture, which limited their ability to get to the line on the college level.
Free Throw Attempts Per Possession
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||0.38|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||0.37|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||0.32|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||0.29|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||0.29|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||0.27|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||0.25|
Even though Free Throws Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted tells us how much a player attacks in bulk, it doesn't show how much they attack relative to their usage rate. This stat tells that story.
We see Travis Leslie make a big jump here, while the top of our list remains somewhat the same with Burks and Bogdanovic ranking prominently. David Lighty and DeAndre Liggins weren't the top options for their respective teams, but both were very solid defensively, and Lighty had some especially good games taking the ball to the basket and getting to the charity stripe early in the season.
Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard both drop a bit in these ranks, mostly because of their higher usage relative to many of the roleplayers in this group. The same can be said for Scott Hopson.
Jordan Hamilton falls into the bottom five, where he is joined by Richmond and Holiday once again. Hamilton is one of the more prolific jump shooters in this group, and it will be interesting to see how his role in the NBA evolves and how regularly he looks to get inside and draw contact.
True Shooting Percentage
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||73%|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||58%|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||58%|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||57%|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||55%|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||52%|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||52%|
True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. A player who makes 4/10 3-pointers obviously contributes the same amount of points as a player who made 6/10 2-pointerswhich doesn't show up in the traditional field goal percentage stat. This stat attempts to adjust for that.
Jon Diebler is the most impressive player in this metric by a long-shot. He had an all-time great career shooting the ball for the Buckeyes, and was especially good as a senior when he not only did a good job playing off David Lighty and Aaron Craft's penetration, but was exceptionally good at knocking down the shots created when Jared Sullinger was doubled in the post.
Marshon Brooks and Alec Burks make an appearance here, with Gilbert Brown sitting in fourth. Brown was a consummate roleplayer for Pitt, and like Brad Wanamaker, is going to make some coach very happy with his approach to the game and discipline. His true shooting is more reflective of his mentality than his skill set, as he's still improving his perimeter consistency.
Klay Thompson, Travis Leslie, and Jordan Hamilton are scattered throughout the middle of these rankings, and there is only a 7% difference between the third ranked player and the second to last ranked player. Kawhi Leonard and Tyler Honeycutt are still developing as shooters, and that's the only thing holding them back from climbing these rankings, while DeAndre Liggins and Bojan Bogdanovic join them in the bottom-5.
Assists Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||4.3|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||4.1|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||3.2|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||2.9|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||2.8|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||2|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||1.6|
David Lighty and Gilbert Brown take the top-2 spots in this metric. Lighty evolved into an extremely complete player during his five years at Ohio State, and the same can be said in some ways for Brown. Both players have role-player potential at the next level, with Lighty having more perimeter game, but both players did an exceptional job moving the ball in their team's offenses.
Klay Thompson may have scored a ton of points last season, but he also did a nice job using the threat of his jump shot to drive into gaps and make plays for others. E'Twaun Moore is a bit undersized for a wing, but the prolific Purdue scorer made some timely passes for the Boilermakers in Big Ten play.
Kawhi Leonard, Alec Burks, Jereme Richmond, and Tyler Honeycutt all showed some passing ability as well. Burks had the ball in his hands the most among those players, but he was obviously looking to score more regularly than he was trying to distribute the ball. Jordan Hamilton is the lowest ranking first round prospect on this list along with Marshon Brooks.
Xavi Rabaseda ranks last here for the simple reason that he almost never handled the ball for Fuenlabrada. His job was to spot-up, and play off of his team's other threats, which he did quite well in stretches this season. Scotty Hopson was the least prolific passer amongst college players, though LaceDarius Dunn gives him a run for his money. Bojan Bogdanovic faced a fairly large burden as his team's top scorers despite his relative youth, and that is represented here.
Turnovers Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||3.8|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||3.7|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||3.5|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||2.7|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||2.6|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||2|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||1.1|
Based on what we saw on the last list, there are a few things that stand out on this one. LaceDarius Dunn and Scotty Hopson both turned the ball over at a high rate despite not being terribly prolific assistsmen, while David Lighty seldom made a bad decision with the ball despite regularly setting the table for others.
At the bottom of this list, we find most of our long-term roleplayers, including Jon Diebler, DeAndre Liggins, and Justin Holiday. Each of those players functioned in a role similar to what they'll be asked to do at the next level, and weren't reckless with the ball in doing so.
On the other side of the spectrum we find Klay Thompson, whose assertiveness as a scorer and passer play against him here. He's joined by Bojan Bogdanovic to your out our rankings.
Most of our first round wings fall somewhere in the middle of this list, with Alec Burks on the high side and Kawhi Leonard on the low side. Clearly, the disparity between those two can be attributed to the extra time Burks spent handling the ball and Leonard's mostly steady decision-making.
Assist to Turnover Ratio
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||2.51|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||2.1|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||1.2|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||1.1|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||0.82|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||0.59|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||0.55|
Putting the last two tables together, we see one of the reasons had such a strong season. Jon Diebler and David Lighty played extremely low-mistake basketball, and are in a tier by themselves here. They are followed by another Big Ten standout in E'Twaun Moore, who sits just ahead of DeAndre Liggins. Gilbert Brown rounds out the top-5. Interestingly, Moore is the only heavy usage scorer in that group.
Sitting slightly above average, we see most of the first round wings, with Travis Leslie, Kawhi Leonard, Alec burks, and Klay Thompson all within .27 of one another. Thompson may have been the most turnover prone of the four, but he was also the best passer. Jordan Hamilton and Marshoon Brooks show their scoring mentality here, posting assist-to-turnover ratios below one, but still sit above our bottom tier, which features our three European players, LaceDarius Dunn, and Scotty Hopson. Hopson is in a tier by himself, ranking as the only wing in this class with an assist-to-turnover ratio below one-half.
Pure Point Rating
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||1.9|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||1.75|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||-1.36|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||-2.64|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||-3.98|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||-4.11|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||-5.95|
Accounting for pace, and the fact that turnovers are statistically a bigger negative than assists are a positive, Jon Hollinger's pure point rating builds on the A/TO ratio that many of us use to gauge the efficiency of passers.
Somewhat similar to the A/T ratio table, this chart drops down many of the less prolific assist men who were playing mostly of the ball, including LaceDarius Dunn.
Once again we find Lighty and Diebler at the top of our list, only Lighty now sits first, as he benefits from the weights associated with assists and turnovers. We see only 5 players on this list at 0 or better, and there is not a true pass-first point-forward in this group.
Rebounds Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||13.5|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||5.8|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||5.2|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||4.4|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||4.2|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||3.9|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||3.1|
Rebounding is an important aspect of the game, and while some wings are a presence on the glass, some do not. With that said, it's important to recognize that some of this stat is systematic.
Kawhi Leonard easily takes the top spot here, standing entirely by himself at 13.5 rebounds per-40 minute pace adjusted. He wants to be a three long-term, but much of his value early in his career resides in the fact that he rebounds the ball like a four. Jordan Hamilton nearly doubled his rebounding output from last season, and manages to take the second spot on this list. Right on his tail are Jereme Richmond and Travis Leslie, two of the more explosive players in this group.
Rounding out the top-7 are three potential first rounders in Tyler Honeycutt, Alec Burks, and Marshon Brooks. Obviously, length plays a role in how these players are able to contribute on the glass.
Klay Thompson and David Lighty sit right in the middle of this list. Lighty was a more prolific rebounder early in his career, while Klay Thompson was asked to get up the floor and score, not sit in the backcourt and scrap in the paint. Lear the bottom of our list we find all of our European players, again highlighting the difference between basketball across the pond and what we see in the NCAA. The three least productive rebounders in this class are Scotty Hopson, LaceDarius Dunn, and Jon Diebler. It is interesting to note that Dunn and Hopson ranked near the bottom of our assist rankings as well.
Steals Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||1.9|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||1.9|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||1.8|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||1.8|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||1.5|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||1.4|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||1.1|
A wing's ability to get in the passing lanes often helps his team quicken the pace of the game and generate easy shots without forcing the issue. Though there's a million ways to create a turnover, this stat paints a broad picture of what a prospect brings to the table both physically in terms of quickness and length and mentally in terms of intensity and anticipation.
David Lighty is among the top wing defenders in this class, and his ability to pressure the ball and deny entry passes place him third here. Kawhi Leonard and Bojan Bogdanovic round out the top-5 despite being on very different ends of the spectrum in terms of raw physical tools.
Klay Thompson, Marshon Brooks, and Travis Leslie sit just outside of the top-5. Interestingly, they rank ahead of potential defensive specialists Justin Holiday and DeAndre Liggins.
Near the bottom of our list we find an interesting mix of prospects. Tyler Honeycutt and Jereme Richmond are amongst the longest players in this class, but neither managed to use that to their advantage in the passing lanes too frequently last season. In contrast, Gilbert Brown's no-risk style is the limiting factor on his production in this metric.
Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||1|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||0.7|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||0.6|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||0.5|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||0.4|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||0.2|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||0.2|
This is yet another stat that can provide some insight into the physical traits that these wings use defensively.
Unlike the last list, we can see the Tyler Honeycutt's length did help him contest shots. Marshon Brooks earned some buzz for his measurements at the combine, and the value of his wingspan is manifested here. Klay Thompson and Justin Holiday rank well here despite playing radically different roles for their respective teams.
Kawhi Leonard, Jordan Hamilton and Alec Burks all rank somewhere in the middle of this list, and there is only a 0.5 block difference between the fifth ranked prospect and the 16th ranked prospect.
The bottom tier of this list is comprised of two of our European prospects alongst with Scotty Hopson, Jon Diebler, and LaceDarius Dunn. Dunn's size is certainly a limiting factor for him, but E'Twaun Moore is not much taller and blocked a few more shots last season. Scotty Hopson is the best athlete of the three, and it is surprising to see him ranked so low.
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||73.3|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||71.9|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||71.6|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||69.4|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||64.3|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||64.2|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||64.2|
Much like we noted in our by the numbers guard article Washington plays at the same pace as many international teams. Providence was one of the faster teams on the East Coast, and Marshon Brooks's aggressiveness as a scorer certainly increased the number of possessions his team got each game.
The Adriatic League is typically the slowest international League, but Cibona made no effort to slow the game down last season. There is quite a wide spectrum of paces on this list. With virtually no true small-school prospects, the paces he see in this list don't vary radically.
The bottom of the list is comprised of some of the top teams in the NCAA last season, and San Diego State, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh all made an effort to control tempo despite holding a talent advantage over most of the teams they played in the regular season.
Player Efficiency Rating
|Kawhi Leonard||San Diego State||NCAA||26.6|
|Klay Thompson||Washington State||NCAA||25.7|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||NCAA||20.9|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||NCAA||19.7|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||ADRIATIC||17.8|
|Bojan Bogdanovic||Cibona Zagreb||EURO||16.5|
|Xavi Rabaseda||Baloncesto Fuenlabrada||ACB||12.5|
Another one of John Hollinger's gems, PER is a total measure of what a player does on the floor based on more than a dozen weighted calculations. It isn't wise to compare players across different leagues, though, since an average score of 15 (the median) would be a totally different figure in another league, with its own averages. The NCAA is especially tricky considering the varying levels of competition we find in the different conferences.
Alec Burks and Marshon Brooks tie for the top spot because of their ability to put the ball in the basket, and are joined in the top-5 by fellow elite college scorers Klay Thompson and Jordan Hamilton.
Kawhi Leonard is the name that stands out near the top of this list, as his rebounding was almost as big an asset in these PER rankings as the prolific scoring of his peers. We saw Jon Diebler and Scotty Hopson at the bottom of our rankings at different points, but both rank above average by this metric because of the things that they do well.
Xavi Rabaseda and Bojan Bogdanovic both place poorly here, showing how PER differs across Leagues. Bogdanovic was one of the most prolific players in the Adriatic League, but still ranks below average here. DeAndre Liggins, Jeremy Richmond, and Tyler Honeycutt are amongst the lowest ranked college players in our list. Liggins played a decidedly smaller role than many of the players on this list, doing the little things for Kentucky rather than trying to do too much like he did early in his career. Richmond had a comparably sized role while Honeycutt's inconsistency game to game limited his overall statistical production and efficiency.