A staple of Dukes rotation for the last three years and a captain for the upcoming campaign, Jon Scheyer
enters his senior season looking to build on a year where he led the Blue Devils in steals (1.6), assists (2.8), and three-point percentage (38.5%). After seeing his minutes decline from his freshman to his sophomore season, Scheyer rebounded last year with improved productivity, though he posted the worst field goal percentage of his career at 39.7%. A capable spot up shooter who has built his resume at a top program; Scheyer certainly has some things going for him from an NBA perspective, but will have to earn a spot in the second-round with his play this season due to his obvious shortcomings.
A known commodity at this point, Scheyers physical profile remains his biggest weakness from an NBA perspective making the way he performs on the floor this season that much more critical to his draft stock. A bit undersized and a step slow, Scheyer has never been projected as an NBA star and certainly wont be picked in the draft based on his upside. However, with three seasons of work under his belt, he has developed some tools that could allow him to make a roster as a roleplayer. His ability to showcase those tools and improve his efficiency will dictate where we have Scheyer slated next spring.
A very capable perimeter scorer, Scheyers best asset for the next level is his shooting stroke. Nearly half of the shots he attempted last season were catch and shoot jumpers, regardless of whether they were coming from spot up situations or from running off of screens. The sheer ratio of outside to inside shots Scheyer took accounted for the dip in his overall field goal percentage from 44.4% as a sophomore to 39.7% as a junior. Displaying a smooth release and textbook form that he doesnt often alter under pressure, the Glenbrook North product makes opposing defenses pay dearly for leaving him open, scoring 1.36 points per possession on open spot up jumpers according to Synergy Sports Technology. Unfortunately, Scheyers efficiency falls off the map when hes well defended with his feet set or after putting the ball on the floor, as his points per-possession on contested catch and shoot jumpers falls all the way to 0.84 in spite of his quick release. Not elevating well on his attempts, Scheyer has an outstanding shot selection for a pure jump shooter, but his inability to create separation with his first step and lack of consistency when defended will be two aspects of his perimeter arsenal to keep an eye on, as they detract from his overall efficiency and ability to be considered a shooting specialist.
In the rare occasions Scheyer drives into the teeth of the defense, he displays some unusual talents, though they arent likely to translate to the next level. Not much of a finisher due to his lack of leaping ability, Scheyer gets to the line at an outrageous rate for a jump shooter, landing amongst the top 20 qualified players in our database in FTA/FGA
. For someone who doesnt venture to the rim often and is lights out from the foul line, Scheyers basketball IQ is never more apparent than it is when hes drawing fouls from the midrange.
Unlike most pure shooters, Scheyer can be an asset in other ways, and while his athleticism will limit his ability to make a big impact on the next level, his extremely high basketball IQ helps him fill smaller roles. An extremely steady guard who doesnt make many spectacular plays, Scheyer is a heady passer and crafty ball handler two things that helped him perform admirably after moving to the point guard position for stretches late last season. With more opportunities to prove his mettle as a playmaker likely on the way this season, Scheyers ability to handle pressure and create baskets for his teammates will be important to his stock and Dukes success. Though he wont be a major drive and kick threat on the next level, if Scheyer can improve his ability to run an offense it certainly wont hurt his cause moving forward.
Defensively, Scheyers savvy and anticipation help him make an impact on the college level, but arent as advantageous from a NBA perspective. Already showing a lack of lateral quickness against lesser competition, Scheyer doesnt project as a good defender on the next level. Showing excellent fundamentals, a high effort level, and outstanding awareness in the passing lanes, the young guards lack of physical strength and foot speed will likely make him a target in isolation situations and force his teammates to compensate for his shortcomings should he make it to the NBA.
It is hard to discount the basketball IQ and winning mentality Scheyer has displayed during his time at Duke, but his poor shooting percentage, lack of physical tools, and defensive ability will require him to have a big senior season to cement himself as an NBA prospect. With Gerald Henderson
moving on, Scheyer would be well served to take advantage of his absence to have a career year. A strong candidate to compete in the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament if his past performances are an indication of what hell show this season, Scheyer could sneak onto the bottom some draft boards with strong play in the ACC, but he faces an uphill. Playing for a big program, any progress he makes will be magnified, putting his skills, consistency, and lack of athleticism under than much more scrutiny.