After playing in the NIT his freshman season, Jahii Carson was able to help the Arizona State Sun Devils to the NCAA tournament, although they fell in the first round to Texas. Carson had an up and down season, and won't be entering the draft with a great deal of momentum.
-P.J. Hairston Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Zach LaVine Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Artem Klimenko Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Tyler Ennis Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Rodney Hood Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Doug McDermott Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Andrew Wiggins Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Elfrid Payton Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-Marcus Smart Scouting Report and Video Breakdown
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: C.J. Wilcox (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: T.J. Warren (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: A.J. Hammons (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: K.J. McDaniels (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Deonte Burton (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Noah Vonleh (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Nik Stauskas (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Aaron Gordon (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Clint Capela (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Thanasis Antetokounmpo (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Shabazz Napier (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Bogdan Bogdanovic (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Joel Embiid (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Julius Randle (Video Scouting Report)
-NBA Draft Prospect of the Week: Jabari Parker (Video Scouting Report)
-Revisiting Giannis Antetokounmpo (Video Scouting Report)
-Revisiting Damian Lillard (Video Scouting Report)
-Revisiting Nikola Mirotic (Video Scouting Report)
-Revisiting Alexis Ajinca (Video Scouting Report)
At only 5'11 and 167 pounds, Carson will be at a major disadvantage from a physical standpoint in the NBA, as he will be one of the smallest players in the league. Only five players have been drafted since 2000 under six foot and only three (D.J. Augustin, Shane Larkin and Nate Robinson) have seen playing time this season. Carson is a tremendous athlete and will be one of the fastest players in the league, as he is a blur with the ball in his hands and loves to beat the defense down the floor to get easy transition baskets, possessing the ability to change speeds in the blink of an eye. He also has great leaping ability, regularly dunking the ball when he has an open lane to the rim.
Carson had one of the highest usage rates of any player in the nation last season at 31%, which ranked fourth among players in our top-100 prospects. He struggled from two point range, converting only 44% on these attempts (third lowest among collegiate Top-100 prospects), but he was relatively effective from 3-point territory, where he shot 39.1% on three attempts per game. He is very solid with his feet set and is capable of stretching the floor when the ball is not in his hands, which doesn't happen all that often.
Where Carson must improve is with his off the dribble shooting, as he converted a paltry 31% of these attempts (26/84) last season according to Synergy Sports Technology. His lack of size makes it difficult for him to get off clean looks, but he will need to find a way to punish defenders going under ball screens to cut off his driving lanes, something he struggled with quite a bit in college.
Offensively, one of Carson's biggest strengths is his ability to get to the rim in the halfcourt. He complements his elite speed with excellent moves off the dribble, including a crossover, behind the back dribble and a hesitation move, but his size hinders his ability to finish at the rim or find teammates once the defenses collapses. He is starting to become more adept at using a floater or runner when he gets into the lane but he needs to improve his touch to become more efficient on these attempts. According to Synergy, he shot 34% on 100 such attemptswhich is not a great rate at all. Without an effective floater, he will likely struggle to score inside the arc over NBA defenders.
Very ball-dominant in his two seasons at Arizona State, Carson struggled to show translatable point guard skills on a consistent basis. He had trouble distributing the ball to his teammates, often struggling to make even the easiest of passes around the arc by putting either too much force into his passes or lazily throwing them in difficult places to catch. Not only did he average only only 5.0 assists per 40 minutes paced adjusted, which ranked 11th of the 15 collegiate prospects in our Top-100 rankings, he also had the second most turnovers, 3.8 per 40 minutes pace adjusted. He ranks 12th of the 15 point guards in our Top-100 prospect rankings in both assist to turnover ratio and pure point rating. He will need to try to distribute the ball more often in the NBA, looking to get his teammates more involved in half-court opportunities. This is especially true in ball screen situations, where he looked for his own offense more often than not, but will need to become better at reading the defense and making the right decision at the next level.
Carson will likely struggle defensively in the NBA, due mainly to his size limitations but he doesn't put out consistent effort to make up for his deficiencies. He has quick feet, which help him move laterally quickly but he still struggles to keep up with bigger players and cut off penetration. Even if he is able to stay in front of the offensive player, his opponent will be able to easily pull up and shoot over him with little trouble.
There are also some question marks regarding Carson's character, as he reportedly did not always see eye to eye with the coaching staff and has developed a bit of a reputation for not being a great teammate.
Carson's freakish athleticism will give him a chance to stick if he's able to improve defensively and cut down on his turnovers, as he wouldn't be the first smaller guard to make it in today's NBA. He has a bit of an uphill battle at this stage and won't get the benefit of being considered to have upside to grow into, despite playing only two seasons of college basketball, as he turns 22 in August and is thus the same age as many seniors in this draft.
We've taken a more visual look at his strengths and weaknesses thanks to game film from his college basketball season in the following video scouting report, courtesy of Mike Schmitz.
All of our video scouting reports this season can be found here.